Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and ultra-religious Salafist parties have garnered more than 60 percent of the parliamentary ballot conducted in nine Egyptian governorates last week. That was the first of a series of elections relating to the Lower House and the Upper House from now until January which will be followed by the presidential ballot in June.
The preliminary outcome has been a source of dismay for Egyptian liberals, modernists and secularists who generally believed Islamic parties would walk away with no more than 40 percent of the vote; most were convinced that former president Mubarak’s prophecy was nothing more than scaremongering designed to keep his regime in power.
I discussed the possibility of a Brotherhood takeover with numerous liberal friends while the January 25 Revolution was in full swing and every one of them discarded the notion that the Egyptian people would go for Islamic parties. This is Egypt, they would say, as though their secular, foreign tourist-welcoming country was impervious to the trend sweeping the Middle East and North Africa. As we see now, their analysis was flawed.
Egyptian democracy-seeking liberals are guilty of being complacent and short-sighted. They failed to realise that Egypt is greater than the affluent, leafy Cairo suburbs of Zamalek, Garden City and Maadi or the new gated villa communities that have mushroomed around the capital’s periphery. The popularity of Islamic parties in certain areas has a direct correlation with poverty—and 30 years of wide-scale government corruption that has brought Egypt to its economic knees.
At least 20 percent of the population live below the poverty line, while most living away from major cities just manage to eke out a living. For people unable to afford meat or essential medicines, the Brotherhood has been a lifeline for decades. The organisation has its own schools, clinics and food outlets where meat and vegetables can be bought at vastly cheap rates. It provides jobs for its members, cash to start-up small businesses and comes to the aid of poor families in times of need. A middle-aged woman asked by a television interviewer why she voted for the Brotherhood said she felt she was indebted to them after they paid a substantial fine to the military on behalf of her conscript son who wanted an early out to provide for his parents and younger siblings. I’ve heard numerous similar stories first hand.
Political opportunism
To be fair to the liberals, during the Mubarak era members of the Brotherhood—then a banned political party—and their beneficiaries maintained a low profile and ensured there was little to distinguish them from the population at large. Followers generally didn’t advertise their allegiance to the Islamists even to friends; indeed, quite a few of my own have since come out of the closet.
But the greatest surprise, nay shock, has been the rise of the Salafis, purists who adhere strictly to the precepts of the Quran. Most liberals I know had never even heard of them a year ago and certainly were not aware that they constituted a force within their midst. Those who were aware of them were then of the belief that they were staunchly against the politicisation of Islam which had historically set them against the Brotherhood and were unprepared for their post-revolution political opportunism. The Salafis scare the liberals far more than the Brotherhood, which still tries its best to appear moderate. Egyptian newspapers are packed with statements from Salafi leaders calling for an Islamist state, demanding women dress modestly and advocating the banning of unaccompanied females from cafes and restaurants.
Liberals may be uncomfortable with the shift—after all, they were the ones who ignited the popular uprising—but they must accept a portion of blame. While the Brotherhood has been campaigning on television and on the street, the youth movements have turned against the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) initiating sit-ins, strikes and a series of ‘million man marches.’
The youth movements have failed to coalesce or get any message across other than their wish to oust the military; they have failed to feel the pulse of the silent majority, whom they call ‘the couch majority.’ Most ordinary Egyptians are suffering from revolution fatigue and now prioritise security and prosperity, no matter who is at the helm.
Last Friday’s ‘Million Man March’ was a damp squib with just a few thousand anti-Scaf protesters turning up. Ironically, a few of those interviewed on CNN said they were not worried about the gains of the Islamic parties because when push came to shove Scaf would intervene to preserve the secular state. They may be right.
The military is concerned about this new reality but says it’s prepared to accept the people’s will while at the same time insisting on its own independence and its duty to keep Egypt secular.
Liberal parties are finally waking up; a coalition has begun to place newspaper ads calling on their base to get proactive. It’s probably too late.
Liberals will just have to come to terms with democracy’s outcome, like it or not. They can take comfort from the fact that in four years’ time, they’ll get a second chance if Islamic parties fail to deliver on their promises. The pendulum could swing in reverse.
Linda S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.
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Surge of Islamic parties in Egypt is not surprising
Posted on December 7, 2011 by Linda S. Heard
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and ultra-religious Salafist parties have garnered more than 60 percent of the parliamentary ballot conducted in nine Egyptian governorates last week. That was the first of a series of elections relating to the Lower House and the Upper House from now until January which will be followed by the presidential ballot in June.
The preliminary outcome has been a source of dismay for Egyptian liberals, modernists and secularists who generally believed Islamic parties would walk away with no more than 40 percent of the vote; most were convinced that former president Mubarak’s prophecy was nothing more than scaremongering designed to keep his regime in power.
I discussed the possibility of a Brotherhood takeover with numerous liberal friends while the January 25 Revolution was in full swing and every one of them discarded the notion that the Egyptian people would go for Islamic parties. This is Egypt, they would say, as though their secular, foreign tourist-welcoming country was impervious to the trend sweeping the Middle East and North Africa. As we see now, their analysis was flawed.
Egyptian democracy-seeking liberals are guilty of being complacent and short-sighted. They failed to realise that Egypt is greater than the affluent, leafy Cairo suburbs of Zamalek, Garden City and Maadi or the new gated villa communities that have mushroomed around the capital’s periphery. The popularity of Islamic parties in certain areas has a direct correlation with poverty—and 30 years of wide-scale government corruption that has brought Egypt to its economic knees.
At least 20 percent of the population live below the poverty line, while most living away from major cities just manage to eke out a living. For people unable to afford meat or essential medicines, the Brotherhood has been a lifeline for decades. The organisation has its own schools, clinics and food outlets where meat and vegetables can be bought at vastly cheap rates. It provides jobs for its members, cash to start-up small businesses and comes to the aid of poor families in times of need. A middle-aged woman asked by a television interviewer why she voted for the Brotherhood said she felt she was indebted to them after they paid a substantial fine to the military on behalf of her conscript son who wanted an early out to provide for his parents and younger siblings. I’ve heard numerous similar stories first hand.
Political opportunism
To be fair to the liberals, during the Mubarak era members of the Brotherhood—then a banned political party—and their beneficiaries maintained a low profile and ensured there was little to distinguish them from the population at large. Followers generally didn’t advertise their allegiance to the Islamists even to friends; indeed, quite a few of my own have since come out of the closet.
But the greatest surprise, nay shock, has been the rise of the Salafis, purists who adhere strictly to the precepts of the Quran. Most liberals I know had never even heard of them a year ago and certainly were not aware that they constituted a force within their midst. Those who were aware of them were then of the belief that they were staunchly against the politicisation of Islam which had historically set them against the Brotherhood and were unprepared for their post-revolution political opportunism. The Salafis scare the liberals far more than the Brotherhood, which still tries its best to appear moderate. Egyptian newspapers are packed with statements from Salafi leaders calling for an Islamist state, demanding women dress modestly and advocating the banning of unaccompanied females from cafes and restaurants.
Liberals may be uncomfortable with the shift—after all, they were the ones who ignited the popular uprising—but they must accept a portion of blame. While the Brotherhood has been campaigning on television and on the street, the youth movements have turned against the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) initiating sit-ins, strikes and a series of ‘million man marches.’
The youth movements have failed to coalesce or get any message across other than their wish to oust the military; they have failed to feel the pulse of the silent majority, whom they call ‘the couch majority.’ Most ordinary Egyptians are suffering from revolution fatigue and now prioritise security and prosperity, no matter who is at the helm.
Last Friday’s ‘Million Man March’ was a damp squib with just a few thousand anti-Scaf protesters turning up. Ironically, a few of those interviewed on CNN said they were not worried about the gains of the Islamic parties because when push came to shove Scaf would intervene to preserve the secular state. They may be right.
The military is concerned about this new reality but says it’s prepared to accept the people’s will while at the same time insisting on its own independence and its duty to keep Egypt secular.
Liberal parties are finally waking up; a coalition has begun to place newspaper ads calling on their base to get proactive. It’s probably too late.
Liberals will just have to come to terms with democracy’s outcome, like it or not. They can take comfort from the fact that in four years’ time, they’ll get a second chance if Islamic parties fail to deliver on their promises. The pendulum could swing in reverse.
Linda S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.