So-called newly democratic Egypt is suffering from too many cooks. Even so, whatever meal they are likely to produce will ultimately be seasoned by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) that has appointed itself as the country’s interior and exterior protector.
Unlike most citizens of Western nations, Egyptians are genetically programmed to talk politics and nowadays the streets and the cafes are abuzz with speculation as to who will be the next president.
Some fear a surreptitious return of Mubarak’s old guard, in particular, his former intelligence chief and vice president, Omar Suleiman; former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq—and former Arab League head Amr Moussa who served in Mubarak’s government before he attracted popular acclaim when he was sidelined to the Arab League. They take the view that if any of the above were to be elected, the blood of the revolution’s martyrs would have been spilled for nothing.
In this camp, conspiracies abound. One is that Suleiman, Shafiq and Moussa are hand-in-glove with the army to keep Islamist parties at bay and will be little more than figureheads for the military rulers. Another revolves around the army having conspired with Washington to give the Muslim Brotherhood just enough rope to hang itself before there will be a Syria-style military crackdown. Parliament has just passed a law banning members of the old regime from participating in political life for ten years but this law has yet to be ratified by SCAF which may choose to leave it in the pending file until the polls’ end.
Liberals and Copts worry about the exponential rise of candidates from Islamist parties, such as the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and the Salafists’ Al-Nour. Their concerns rest on the potential introduction of Shariah law and the social restrictions that some Islamist front-runners have pledged to impose which could heavily impact the tourist industry. They also fear that Egypt could lose its historical open character triggering an exit of foreign investment. A minority claims if the country morphs into an Islamic state, this year’s election could be Egypt’s last. A hairdresser friend of mine who owns his own ladies’ salon is so panicked about the possible advent of a law that would bar men from doing women’s hair that he’s rented another premises that will be staffed solely by females.
Recent events have added to the general atmosphere of uncertainty.
In response to complaints from moderates as well as the country’s highest institute of Islamic learning, Al-Azhar, and the Coptic Church that the Constituent Assembly charged with drafting a new constitution was dominated by Islamists, the State Council’s Administrative Court disbanded the 100-member committee, eliciting a furious reaction from Islamists who form an overwhelming majority in Parliament’s lower house.
On Sunday, head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi together with SCAF’s advisory council held a meeting with representatives from most political parties to discuss the criteria upon which members of a new Constituent Assembly should be chosen and whether the liberals’ insistence that any decision should be agreed upon by 75 percent of the membership rather than the existing 50 percent stipulation is worthy of implementation.
There is one point on which moderates and Islamists agree. Both sides want a new constitution firmed up before a new president is installed to guarantee a limitation on his powers and term of office, so as to prevent the creep of authoritarianism that would hurtle Egypt back to the Mubarak era. However, with elections slated for May 23 and 24. time is of the essence. The previous constitution took 18 months to draw up, yet Marshal Tantawi demands that the new one should be in place before June 30 when SCAF is ostensibly due to hand over power. Should that turn out to be untenable in a practical sense, the ballot is more than likely to be postponed.
So there’s no Constitution and no Constituent Assembly to produce it. Worse, as I write, nobody knows for certain whose hat will remain in the presidential ring as last week the Electoral Committee barred ten contenders from the race, including three front-runners. Sheikh Hazem Salah Abu Ismail was deemed ineligible over allegations that his mother held US citizenship. The Muslim Brotherhood’s Khairat Al-Shater was excluded due to a previous criminal conviction—and there were suspicions that some of the requisite 30,000 signatures provided by last minute entrant Omar Suleiman weren’t authentic. At least five of the banned candidates, including Abu Ismail, Al-Shater and Suleiman, took advantage of the 42-hour window for appeal.
In the meantime, the atmosphere is being polluted with scandal-mongering, threats and rumor. I can’t count how many Egyptians I’ve heard whispering about more than one holier-than-thou candidate being wed to a belly dancer.
Omar Suleiman, who surprised everyone with his rise in the polls as a favorite among Egyptian men and the middle-to-lower income bracket, has accused Islamist politicians of making threats on his life and, in response, he’s threatened to open his intelligence ‘black box’ to expose the dirt on them.
Abu Ismail has hit-out at SCAF for inserting Suleiman in the ring before ejecting him so that his own disqualification could appear impartial or non-partisan. He also accuses the Electoral Committee of arrogance and intransigence as well as “treachery and treason” and promises to expose bribery and fraud committed by some of the country’s prominent officials.
Since neither Suleiman nor Abu Ismail were reinstituted yesterday, Egyptians are probably looking at a two-horse race. In the left corner is Amr Moussa, a favorite of the establishment and in the right is the moderate Islamist Abdel-Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a doctor and former high-up in the Muslim Brotherhood who provoked its ire when he decided to run against its leadership’s instructions. However, if I’m reading the situation correctly, a growing number of Egyptians are reaching the stage where they would welcome Mickey Mouse provided he could guarantee law-and-order, stability, jobs, price-controls and a healthy economy. The heady fever of revolution has abated as the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists saw to their dismay last Friday when the millions they hoped to summon to Tahrir Square didn’t materialize. People want normality back in their lives and after more than a year of turbulence, who can blame them?
Linda S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.
