Egyptians have been wandering around in a maze since early 2011, searching for the way out; only to find themselves back where they began the day president Hosni Mubarak was forced to step down. They have no constitution, no parliament and when it comes to choosing a president, the majority feels fobbed off with Hobson’s choice: Either the Muslim Brotherhood’s uninspiring chairman Mohammad Mursi or Ahmad Shafiq, known to have an authoritarian outlook, who many believe is tainted by his association with the old regime. Those two seemed to pop out of nowhere. Opinion polls were wrong. Commentators were wrong. In present-day Egypt, the more you know, the less you know.
The overwhelming emotion experienced by most Egyptians I have spoken to is one of confusion. They don’t know what’s going on from one day to the next. They’re not excited about either man’s leadership potential. In the end, it comes down to whether they want to live in a socially conservative state or one that is more liberally inclined. Clearly, whatever they decide, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) that controls 30 percent of the economy will remain the hand that rocks the cradle.
International TV reporters and cameramen were out in force around Cairo’s iconic Tahrir Square last Friday, hoping for action. The expectation was that there would be massive demonstrations against decisions announced last Wednesday by Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court. The court ruled to disband the Islamist-dominated upper and lower parliamentary chambers, which it characterised as unconstitutional on the basis of a law reserving a third of all parliamentary seats for independents. In the interim, all legislative and budgetary responsibilities are is in the hands of the Scaf. Within hours, soldiers were deployed around parliament, in case legislators dared to defy the court.
One of the judges explained that “the makeup of the entire chamber is illegal and, consequently, it does not legally stand.” Mursi was incensed. He reluctantly accepted the court’s rulings, but warned any whiff of votes being skewed in favour of his opponent during the presidential run-off would trigger “a huge revolution.” Egyptians will presumably be returned to vote in a new parliamentary ballot. That’s far from good news for the Muslin Brotherhood, whose legislators have been accused of inexperience and incompetence. Under a bombardment of attacks and accusations from the centre-right, the Muslim Brotherhood is losing its popularity. Moreover, by its constant criticisms of the judiciary and the military, it has made enemies in high places.
The court also paved the way for Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime ministerial appointee, to remain in the race. In a televised speech, Shafiq was victorious, sounding like a man certain that the prize was his. Mursi described his rival’s continued candidacy as “unsatisfactory.”
Expecting a public backlash, mainly from supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and the Al Nour Salafist party, major news channels such as CNN and BBC covered Egypt as their top story. But, in the event, journalists probably outnumbered protesters. Traffic moved around the square uninterrupted. The BBC’s Lyse Doucet said demonstrators were shouting the same slogans heard during the revolution, but if they were indeed there, they weren’t evident on any live feed. I found their absence rather creepy. They’ve been coming out in large numbers every Friday. Why did they stay away when the revolution has never been this threatened?
It may be that they are biding their time, awaiting election results before they make their move. Or they may have been intimidated by mushrooming army checkpoints, military vehicles carrying hooded commandoes (described by one of my friends as “ninjas”) fanning the streets early morning and with new powers to arrest civilians given to military officers, military police and intelligence officers under a decree issued by the Justice Ministry. Some are already beginning to wonder whether the army has launched a quiet military coup while they blinked. Amnesty International has called for such new powers to be revoked due to the potential for human rights abuses. US Secretary-of-State Hillary Clinton has responded by urging the military to hand over powers to an elected civilian government, saying “there’s no going back.”
The country has emerged as a hotbed of conspiracies; some laughable. Tawfiq Okasha, the owner of Faraeen TV, believes the Muslim Brotherhood has been donating free “disappearing ink” pens to Shafiq supporters, making their ballots invalid. Faraeen has been running controversial advertisements, advising Egyptians to avoid talking to foreigners who may be spies—something that has outraged the business community and those who make their living from tourism. I’ve even heard whispers from people convinced that they will wake up one morning to find Mubarak reinstalled. Others say the army has been planning a crackdown on Islamists all along, after giving them enough rope with which to hang themselves.
From my own observation, I note that a hefty percentage of elites, moderates, intellectuals and Copts are relieved that parliament’s doors are closed and the army is taking control. Anything is better than Islamist rule, they say. I heard a woman caller to a local French FM radio station say she had tears in her eyes, tears of joy, after learning of the Supreme Constitutional Court’s rulings.
I’m relishing having a front seat to watch history unfold but, although I’m not Egyptian, I can’t help but wish it would unfold in a more positive way. After 30 years of dictatorship and a revolution, followed by 18 months of uncertainty, the last thing they deserve is a one-way ticket to where they started.
Linda S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.
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Lull before the storm
Posted on June 20, 2012 by Linda S. Heard
Egyptians have been wandering around in a maze since early 2011, searching for the way out; only to find themselves back where they began the day president Hosni Mubarak was forced to step down. They have no constitution, no parliament and when it comes to choosing a president, the majority feels fobbed off with Hobson’s choice: Either the Muslim Brotherhood’s uninspiring chairman Mohammad Mursi or Ahmad Shafiq, known to have an authoritarian outlook, who many believe is tainted by his association with the old regime. Those two seemed to pop out of nowhere. Opinion polls were wrong. Commentators were wrong. In present-day Egypt, the more you know, the less you know.
The overwhelming emotion experienced by most Egyptians I have spoken to is one of confusion. They don’t know what’s going on from one day to the next. They’re not excited about either man’s leadership potential. In the end, it comes down to whether they want to live in a socially conservative state or one that is more liberally inclined. Clearly, whatever they decide, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) that controls 30 percent of the economy will remain the hand that rocks the cradle.
International TV reporters and cameramen were out in force around Cairo’s iconic Tahrir Square last Friday, hoping for action. The expectation was that there would be massive demonstrations against decisions announced last Wednesday by Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court. The court ruled to disband the Islamist-dominated upper and lower parliamentary chambers, which it characterised as unconstitutional on the basis of a law reserving a third of all parliamentary seats for independents. In the interim, all legislative and budgetary responsibilities are is in the hands of the Scaf. Within hours, soldiers were deployed around parliament, in case legislators dared to defy the court.
One of the judges explained that “the makeup of the entire chamber is illegal and, consequently, it does not legally stand.” Mursi was incensed. He reluctantly accepted the court’s rulings, but warned any whiff of votes being skewed in favour of his opponent during the presidential run-off would trigger “a huge revolution.” Egyptians will presumably be returned to vote in a new parliamentary ballot. That’s far from good news for the Muslin Brotherhood, whose legislators have been accused of inexperience and incompetence. Under a bombardment of attacks and accusations from the centre-right, the Muslim Brotherhood is losing its popularity. Moreover, by its constant criticisms of the judiciary and the military, it has made enemies in high places.
The court also paved the way for Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime ministerial appointee, to remain in the race. In a televised speech, Shafiq was victorious, sounding like a man certain that the prize was his. Mursi described his rival’s continued candidacy as “unsatisfactory.”
Expecting a public backlash, mainly from supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and the Al Nour Salafist party, major news channels such as CNN and BBC covered Egypt as their top story. But, in the event, journalists probably outnumbered protesters. Traffic moved around the square uninterrupted. The BBC’s Lyse Doucet said demonstrators were shouting the same slogans heard during the revolution, but if they were indeed there, they weren’t evident on any live feed. I found their absence rather creepy. They’ve been coming out in large numbers every Friday. Why did they stay away when the revolution has never been this threatened?
It may be that they are biding their time, awaiting election results before they make their move. Or they may have been intimidated by mushrooming army checkpoints, military vehicles carrying hooded commandoes (described by one of my friends as “ninjas”) fanning the streets early morning and with new powers to arrest civilians given to military officers, military police and intelligence officers under a decree issued by the Justice Ministry. Some are already beginning to wonder whether the army has launched a quiet military coup while they blinked. Amnesty International has called for such new powers to be revoked due to the potential for human rights abuses. US Secretary-of-State Hillary Clinton has responded by urging the military to hand over powers to an elected civilian government, saying “there’s no going back.”
The country has emerged as a hotbed of conspiracies; some laughable. Tawfiq Okasha, the owner of Faraeen TV, believes the Muslim Brotherhood has been donating free “disappearing ink” pens to Shafiq supporters, making their ballots invalid. Faraeen has been running controversial advertisements, advising Egyptians to avoid talking to foreigners who may be spies—something that has outraged the business community and those who make their living from tourism. I’ve even heard whispers from people convinced that they will wake up one morning to find Mubarak reinstalled. Others say the army has been planning a crackdown on Islamists all along, after giving them enough rope with which to hang themselves.
From my own observation, I note that a hefty percentage of elites, moderates, intellectuals and Copts are relieved that parliament’s doors are closed and the army is taking control. Anything is better than Islamist rule, they say. I heard a woman caller to a local French FM radio station say she had tears in her eyes, tears of joy, after learning of the Supreme Constitutional Court’s rulings.
I’m relishing having a front seat to watch history unfold but, although I’m not Egyptian, I can’t help but wish it would unfold in a more positive way. After 30 years of dictatorship and a revolution, followed by 18 months of uncertainty, the last thing they deserve is a one-way ticket to where they started.
Linda S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.