Most followers of world affairs have a tendency to yawn whenever nuclear-armed North Korea threatens war on its neighbours. After all, successive Kims cried wolf on so many occasions that they ultimately were not taken seriously.
Western analysts generally perceive threats from Kim Jong-un, who inherited the leadership upon his father’s death in December 2011, to be cut from the same cloth as his predecessors—someone who sabre-rattles to whip up public nationalism in order to heighten his own popularity.
Certainly, there are precedents: Too many to mention all of them. In 1994, a North Korean official threatened Seoul with becoming “a sea of fire” and in 2006, a government spokesman warned that “War is coming to US soil.”
So, it is understandable that the supreme leader’s recent aggressive posturing, including his March 7 threat of a preemptive nuclear attack on the US, are seen in some quarters as little but a propagandist’s ratcheting to induce national pride in a poverty-stricken population isolated from the rest of the world—and/or as an attempt to keep the nation’s enemies at bay.
That may, indeed, be the case, but there is a real danger in assuming like-father-like-son—a man who drank the juice of US/South Korean fear and hatred since birth.
At barely 30, the world’s youngest head-of-state is a virtual closed book. Believed to have attended school in Switzerland under a different name, as the son of a North Korean diplomat, he was more orientated towards sports than academia and was a fan of America’s basketball great Michael Jordan.
According to his father’s ex-chef, Kenji Fujimoto, he puffs Yves Saint Laurent cigarettes. His father Kim Jong-il thought him to be a chip off the old block with a similar outlook, but since he came to power he has been freeing himself from his father’s old guard, tasked with taking him under their wing.
He may detest the West, but he is said to love many things American—including Hollywood movies. His invitations to visit accepted by Google’s chairman Eric Schmidt and former Chicago Bulls star Dennis Rodman were considered to be the seed of a new “sunshine diplomacy” until he reverted to type, becoming more belligerent than ever. Rodman quoted him saying emphatically “I don’t want to do war” and as welcoming a cozy phone chat with President Barack Obama. But just months later, he was menacingly brandishing his nukes.
Kim Jong-un is more dangerous than his father. He is young, not overly bright and ambitious. His behaviour is inconsistent and egocentric—and he is a totally unknown quantity, even down to his actual date of birth. This is why it will be a grave mistake to write him off as a blusterer.
It may be that actions speak louder than words. In December, North Korea launched a long-range missile with the alleged capacity of reaching the continental US, although that has been disputed. In March, it was criticised by Washington and the UN for conducting a nuclear test prompting Pyongyang to announce it would re-start its nuclear reactors. Last week, North Korea’s military revealed it had a green light to target the US with “smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear weapons.” Moreover, according to South Korean sources, one, or possibly two missiles with a potential range of roughly 2897km, capable of hitting more than 6,000 US troops stationed on the Pacific island of Guam, if not Alaska, are deployed on mobile launchers near North Korea’s east coast.
The BBC has reported that the country’s state television is covering military preparedness for conflict and, last Friday, North Korea advised foreign embassies to evacuate their staff members, whose personal safety could no longer be assured in the light of the current tensions—an advice which so far has been ignored. However, the Obama administration is not being entirely cavalier. The US has postponed the test of its Minuteman-3 intercontinental ballistic missile to avoid being inflammatory, while seeking to protect Guam by deployment of a missile defence system and is said to have moved an arsenal of chemical weapons to South Korea.
Expectably, Iran has lined up with Pyongyang. Last Friday, the Deputy Chief-of-Staff of Iran’s armed forces lashed out at the US with “the presence of Americans in South Korea has been the root of tensions in this sensitive region in the past and present” adding, “The US and its allies will suffer great losses if a war breaks out in this region.”
Iran has its own anti-US axe to grind. However, Washington is guilty of permitting relations with the US and North Korea to fester since Bill Clinton’s 2009 visit, when Kim Jong-Il was in a placatory mood and Jimmy Carter’s peace mission to that country in 2011.
Nobody can safely predict the outcome of this ongoing friction when any incident, even one that is inadvertent, can be the trigger for a conflict. Nevertheless, though Kim Jong-un may be bullish, he is likely to be reined-in by Pyongyang’s closest ally and trading partner China, which refrains from public criticism of Pyongyang, but is believed to be growing weary of the new leader’s antics.
Linda S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.
RSS
Is Pyongyang playing a game of bluff?
Posted on April 9, 2013 by Linda S. Heard
Most followers of world affairs have a tendency to yawn whenever nuclear-armed North Korea threatens war on its neighbours. After all, successive Kims cried wolf on so many occasions that they ultimately were not taken seriously.
Western analysts generally perceive threats from Kim Jong-un, who inherited the leadership upon his father’s death in December 2011, to be cut from the same cloth as his predecessors—someone who sabre-rattles to whip up public nationalism in order to heighten his own popularity.
Certainly, there are precedents: Too many to mention all of them. In 1994, a North Korean official threatened Seoul with becoming “a sea of fire” and in 2006, a government spokesman warned that “War is coming to US soil.”
So, it is understandable that the supreme leader’s recent aggressive posturing, including his March 7 threat of a preemptive nuclear attack on the US, are seen in some quarters as little but a propagandist’s ratcheting to induce national pride in a poverty-stricken population isolated from the rest of the world—and/or as an attempt to keep the nation’s enemies at bay.
That may, indeed, be the case, but there is a real danger in assuming like-father-like-son—a man who drank the juice of US/South Korean fear and hatred since birth.
At barely 30, the world’s youngest head-of-state is a virtual closed book. Believed to have attended school in Switzerland under a different name, as the son of a North Korean diplomat, he was more orientated towards sports than academia and was a fan of America’s basketball great Michael Jordan.
According to his father’s ex-chef, Kenji Fujimoto, he puffs Yves Saint Laurent cigarettes. His father Kim Jong-il thought him to be a chip off the old block with a similar outlook, but since he came to power he has been freeing himself from his father’s old guard, tasked with taking him under their wing.
He may detest the West, but he is said to love many things American—including Hollywood movies. His invitations to visit accepted by Google’s chairman Eric Schmidt and former Chicago Bulls star Dennis Rodman were considered to be the seed of a new “sunshine diplomacy” until he reverted to type, becoming more belligerent than ever. Rodman quoted him saying emphatically “I don’t want to do war” and as welcoming a cozy phone chat with President Barack Obama. But just months later, he was menacingly brandishing his nukes.
Kim Jong-un is more dangerous than his father. He is young, not overly bright and ambitious. His behaviour is inconsistent and egocentric—and he is a totally unknown quantity, even down to his actual date of birth. This is why it will be a grave mistake to write him off as a blusterer.
It may be that actions speak louder than words. In December, North Korea launched a long-range missile with the alleged capacity of reaching the continental US, although that has been disputed. In March, it was criticised by Washington and the UN for conducting a nuclear test prompting Pyongyang to announce it would re-start its nuclear reactors. Last week, North Korea’s military revealed it had a green light to target the US with “smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear weapons.” Moreover, according to South Korean sources, one, or possibly two missiles with a potential range of roughly 2897km, capable of hitting more than 6,000 US troops stationed on the Pacific island of Guam, if not Alaska, are deployed on mobile launchers near North Korea’s east coast.
The BBC has reported that the country’s state television is covering military preparedness for conflict and, last Friday, North Korea advised foreign embassies to evacuate their staff members, whose personal safety could no longer be assured in the light of the current tensions—an advice which so far has been ignored. However, the Obama administration is not being entirely cavalier. The US has postponed the test of its Minuteman-3 intercontinental ballistic missile to avoid being inflammatory, while seeking to protect Guam by deployment of a missile defence system and is said to have moved an arsenal of chemical weapons to South Korea.
Expectably, Iran has lined up with Pyongyang. Last Friday, the Deputy Chief-of-Staff of Iran’s armed forces lashed out at the US with “the presence of Americans in South Korea has been the root of tensions in this sensitive region in the past and present” adding, “The US and its allies will suffer great losses if a war breaks out in this region.”
Iran has its own anti-US axe to grind. However, Washington is guilty of permitting relations with the US and North Korea to fester since Bill Clinton’s 2009 visit, when Kim Jong-Il was in a placatory mood and Jimmy Carter’s peace mission to that country in 2011.
Nobody can safely predict the outcome of this ongoing friction when any incident, even one that is inadvertent, can be the trigger for a conflict. Nevertheless, though Kim Jong-un may be bullish, he is likely to be reined-in by Pyongyang’s closest ally and trading partner China, which refrains from public criticism of Pyongyang, but is believed to be growing weary of the new leader’s antics.
Linda S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.